In a previous post, I noted that the most recent polling information at the time had the two presidential candidates in a virtual tie (in a poll taken prior to the Democratic convention). CNN now reports that President Obama’s approval rating is at 51% (with 44% disapproving). All along, I’ve pointed out that presidential approval is one of the primary predictors of an incumbent’s re-election success. While I’m sure the improvement in approval is encouraging for President Obama, it is worth mentioning some historical information as it relates to approval and re-election.
In recent memory, two presidents running for re-election had job approval ratings prior to Election Day of above 60%. Those two presidents were Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996. Both won re-election with relative ease. On the opposite end, two presidents running for re-election had under a 40% job approval rating prior to their re-election bids – Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Both of those candidates lost their re-election bids.
Of course, job approval ratings that are closer to 50% don’t provide as clear a picture of a president’s re-election prospects. George W. Bush won re-election (more narrowly) in 2004 with a 52% job approval rating. President Obama’s 51% approval is similar to that, and it will be interesting to see how much – and in what direction – that will move in the next 50+ days. I’m guessing he might receive a small boost if he does well in the debates (and is expected), so maybe he does have a real chance for re-election.
Up to now, I’ve felt that President Obama’s re-election prospects were small, but for the first time, I see a real path for his re-election. Lots can still happen, of course.
John Klemanski
In recent memory, two presidents running for re-election had job approval ratings prior to Election Day of above 60%. Those two presidents were Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1996. Both won re-election with relative ease. On the opposite end, two presidents running for re-election had under a 40% job approval rating prior to their re-election bids – Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Both of those candidates lost their re-election bids.
Of course, job approval ratings that are closer to 50% don’t provide as clear a picture of a president’s re-election prospects. George W. Bush won re-election (more narrowly) in 2004 with a 52% job approval rating. President Obama’s 51% approval is similar to that, and it will be interesting to see how much – and in what direction – that will move in the next 50+ days. I’m guessing he might receive a small boost if he does well in the debates (and is expected), so maybe he does have a real chance for re-election.
Up to now, I’ve felt that President Obama’s re-election prospects were small, but for the first time, I see a real path for his re-election. Lots can still happen, of course.
John Klemanski
RSS Feed