A recent poll by Mitchell Research puts Mitt Romney slightly ahead of Barack Obama in Michigan – 45% to 44%. Since the margin of error is 3.4%, this result shouldn’t be taken literally. However, what we’ve seen in the polling over the past few months is the gap between the two candidates has been closing, and the trend isn’t a good sign for the president.
While we still have over three months left until the November election, the general election campaign already seems to be in full swing. Both candidates – and their Super PACs -- have aired lots of TV ads, especially in battleground states. Part of the lesson of this poll is that while Michigan wasn’t necessarily considered to be a battleground state earlier this year, it’s now close enough for both candidates to put more campaign resources into the state.
I’ve been following some of the other polls too, and while they vary a little, most have the two candidates within 5 percentage points of each other in Michigan, as of either June or July. If we see more advertising in Michigan, I wonder what message each candidate will focus on. We assume that the economy is the major issue of this campaign, and especially so in this state. That would seem to give Mitt Romney an advantage, since many voters will likely blame the president for our economic problems. However, Romney has needed to spend lots of his time defending his record at Bain Capital, downplaying his “wealthy elite” status, and explaining why he won’t release more tax return information.
John Klemanski
While we still have over three months left until the November election, the general election campaign already seems to be in full swing. Both candidates – and their Super PACs -- have aired lots of TV ads, especially in battleground states. Part of the lesson of this poll is that while Michigan wasn’t necessarily considered to be a battleground state earlier this year, it’s now close enough for both candidates to put more campaign resources into the state.
I’ve been following some of the other polls too, and while they vary a little, most have the two candidates within 5 percentage points of each other in Michigan, as of either June or July. If we see more advertising in Michigan, I wonder what message each candidate will focus on. We assume that the economy is the major issue of this campaign, and especially so in this state. That would seem to give Mitt Romney an advantage, since many voters will likely blame the president for our economic problems. However, Romney has needed to spend lots of his time defending his record at Bain Capital, downplaying his “wealthy elite” status, and explaining why he won’t release more tax return information.
John Klemanski
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