For several months, I've thought that this election was Mitt Romney's to lose.  More recently been thinking that he's losing it.  Public opinion polls taken in many of the battleground states have indicated slight to moderate leads for President Obama in virtually all of these states.  He's ahead of Mitt Romney in the key state of Ohio, and he's more comfortably ahead in Wisconsin (thought to be more in play because of Paul Ryan) and Michigan (once had been leaning Democratic, then more of a toss-up, now back again to lean Democratic).

New polls in New Hampshire have the President ahead, and he's slight ahead of Mitt Romney in Nevada and North Carolina (although my feeling is that President Obama will ultimately lose in NC).  These are all very good signs for President Obama, who overall numbers seem to be tracking upward, while Mitt Romney's numbers are sliding.

This puts more pressure on Mitt Romney to perform well in the presidential debates, the first of which will be held next Wednesday.  It's likely that the President will fall back on his experience as President, so can speak in greater detail about policy-making and making tough decisions. He has some successes to talk about (the auto bailout is generally a positive, even though there are some (like Mr. Romney) who opposed this effort.

I assume Mitt Romney will hammer the President on the sluggish economy over and over.  I think he needs to be careful, however.  If he only talks about the high unemployment rate, he'll sound like he has nothing else to talk about.  I'm guessing that he'll need to be fairly aggressive, without appearing too extreme.

However, at this stage of the campaign, Mitt Romney looks like he's slipping. Is he losing it?

John Klemanski
Amanda Stevens
9/28/2012 09:26:21 am

I don't believe Mitt Romney is losing it, we've seen through out the year this pattern of fluctuations in the polls. The major focus will be on the debates and Mitt Romney will have his time to shine if he is strategic in his rhetoric. In fact, I believe Mitt Romney has the upper hand when it comes to the debates because Obama's presidency hasn't held up to the 'hope' and 'change' he once promised in 2008 and many voters will hold him accountable. Also, the lack of excitement in Obama's campaign may result in a loss of voter outcome (specifically among the younger voters) that was seen in the last election. Yet it will be interesting to see how the campaigns play out in the weeks to come.

Reply
John K.
9/30/2012 03:07:40 am

Amanda:

Thanks for your comments. You've made some good points -- I agree that there doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm on the Obama side, and I know he's having trouble hanging on to the youth vote that he won handily in 2008. This is one reason why I find these polling results a little odd -- I thought President Obama would be having more trouble than he seems to be. Of course, the polls are very close in many states and it wouldn't take much to turn a "lean Obama" into a "lean Romney."

It will be interesting to see how the debates turn out. The first debate is on domestic issues, which means the economy, so this is Mitt Romney's chance to shine.

Reply



Leave a Reply.