I'm writing this Tuesday morning, November 6, and the polls in the east have just opened. I promised to give my predictions about today's election winner, so I'll give it a try.
First, let me remind you that at the beginning of this year, most observers would have agreed that this is a "change" year in the presidential election. That means that many/most voters were unhappy with the President's performance and would be more inclined to vote for a change. A similar circumstance happened in 2008, when many voters were unhappy with President Bush's performance in his second term, so were ready for a change (sorry, John McCain).
We also know how close the overall national polling preference is, and how close the race is in most of the battleground states. Given those factors, there are several possible outcomes. At this point, a key factor is voter turnout, which could easily determine which candidate wins (and factor in the possible effects of Hurricane Sandy on turnout in the northeast U.S.).
As I look at the Electoral College vote, it seems that Ohio is the key state. I think Florida is important too, but I now think that Florida will go for Mitt Romney. However, I don't see Mitt Romney winning the election without winning Ohio (indeed, there hasn't been a recent Republican President who didn't win Ohio).
Ohio is close, although I think President Obama has gained a couple of polling points in recent days. This is partly due to the back-and-forth about the auto bailout, and the recent controversy about whether Chrysler intends to make Jeeps in China or Ohio. I think Mitt Romney is losing that argument, and he may lose Ohio as a consequence.
It's also uncertain how Hurricane Sandy and the aftermath of the storm has affected voters. Mitt Romney's "leave it to the states and volunteers" approach doesn't seem to make sense, given the large scope of the storm and the need for a more coordinated effort to recover and rebuild.
I give Barack Obama between 271 and 289 Electoral College votes, which will win the election. There are a couple of scenarios that give Mitt Romney a victory, but it would require him to win Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado. Romney will win lots of states in the West, but remember that many of them (Montana, N Dakota, S Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho) have only a few Electoral College votes each. I also found a possible scenario in which the candidates each earned 269 votes, thus throwing the election to the U.S. House. I think Mr. Romney will have an advantage in terms of turnout, which could help him win a couple of crucial states that most believed would go to President Obama.
Finally, may I point out that some states may face a recount or will not be able to officially call a winner tonight because the election will force a recount, or some late arriving absentee ballots will need to be counted to officially declare a winner. It's possible that we won't know who won by tomorrow morning, and we'll face a situation similar to the 2000 Bush/Gore election, when we didn't know who won until December. I hope not.
John Klemanski
First, let me remind you that at the beginning of this year, most observers would have agreed that this is a "change" year in the presidential election. That means that many/most voters were unhappy with the President's performance and would be more inclined to vote for a change. A similar circumstance happened in 2008, when many voters were unhappy with President Bush's performance in his second term, so were ready for a change (sorry, John McCain).
We also know how close the overall national polling preference is, and how close the race is in most of the battleground states. Given those factors, there are several possible outcomes. At this point, a key factor is voter turnout, which could easily determine which candidate wins (and factor in the possible effects of Hurricane Sandy on turnout in the northeast U.S.).
As I look at the Electoral College vote, it seems that Ohio is the key state. I think Florida is important too, but I now think that Florida will go for Mitt Romney. However, I don't see Mitt Romney winning the election without winning Ohio (indeed, there hasn't been a recent Republican President who didn't win Ohio).
Ohio is close, although I think President Obama has gained a couple of polling points in recent days. This is partly due to the back-and-forth about the auto bailout, and the recent controversy about whether Chrysler intends to make Jeeps in China or Ohio. I think Mitt Romney is losing that argument, and he may lose Ohio as a consequence.
It's also uncertain how Hurricane Sandy and the aftermath of the storm has affected voters. Mitt Romney's "leave it to the states and volunteers" approach doesn't seem to make sense, given the large scope of the storm and the need for a more coordinated effort to recover and rebuild.
I give Barack Obama between 271 and 289 Electoral College votes, which will win the election. There are a couple of scenarios that give Mitt Romney a victory, but it would require him to win Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado. Romney will win lots of states in the West, but remember that many of them (Montana, N Dakota, S Dakota, Wyoming, and Idaho) have only a few Electoral College votes each. I also found a possible scenario in which the candidates each earned 269 votes, thus throwing the election to the U.S. House. I think Mr. Romney will have an advantage in terms of turnout, which could help him win a couple of crucial states that most believed would go to President Obama.
Finally, may I point out that some states may face a recount or will not be able to officially call a winner tonight because the election will force a recount, or some late arriving absentee ballots will need to be counted to officially declare a winner. It's possible that we won't know who won by tomorrow morning, and we'll face a situation similar to the 2000 Bush/Gore election, when we didn't know who won until December. I hope not.
John Klemanski
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