It's common for political scientists to make some mention of third parties during a Presidential election, if only to discuss the lack of media attention they receive or why their candidates are not invited to the televised debates. (Note that C-SPAN recently aired a "third party debate" that featured the 3rd party candidates debating each other).
While everyone recognizes that third party candidates won't win a presidential election, it can be useful to talk about a possible significant role that these candidates can play in an election. For example, it's possible that third party candidates can affect the outcome of an election. We believe this happened in 1992, when Ross Perot took 19% of the popular vote. He didn't earn any Electoral College votes, but he certainly took votes away from the major party candidates -- hurting George H.W. Bush more than Bill Clinton, we believe. In some large part, it's possible that Perot gave the election to the Democrats that year. In the 2000 election, Green party candidate Ralph Nader picked up more than 94,000 votes in Florida. Even if only a thousand of those voters had voted for Al Gore, the Democrats would have won the Presidency in 2000 (since George W. Bush won Florida -- and the election -- by only 537 votes).
What about this year? Libertarian party candidate Gary Johnson (a one-time Republican presidential candidate) and Virgil Goode of the Constitution party could take away votes from Mitt Romney. Jill Stein of the Green party would more likely draw votes away from Barack Obama. Is it possible that these third party candidates could affect the outcome?
Even though each of them will receive a fairly small number of votes, remember that we have a very close election in several important battleground states. If these candidates combine to pick up even 1-2% of the votes in a close battleground state, it could easily affect the election outcome in that state.
In an election year that is this close, we've spent time discussing how just about every voter group (Latinos, females, young people, etc.) can decide an election, it's not a far stretch to believe that another important voting block is the group of third party voters. They too could decide this election.
John Klemanski
While everyone recognizes that third party candidates won't win a presidential election, it can be useful to talk about a possible significant role that these candidates can play in an election. For example, it's possible that third party candidates can affect the outcome of an election. We believe this happened in 1992, when Ross Perot took 19% of the popular vote. He didn't earn any Electoral College votes, but he certainly took votes away from the major party candidates -- hurting George H.W. Bush more than Bill Clinton, we believe. In some large part, it's possible that Perot gave the election to the Democrats that year. In the 2000 election, Green party candidate Ralph Nader picked up more than 94,000 votes in Florida. Even if only a thousand of those voters had voted for Al Gore, the Democrats would have won the Presidency in 2000 (since George W. Bush won Florida -- and the election -- by only 537 votes).
What about this year? Libertarian party candidate Gary Johnson (a one-time Republican presidential candidate) and Virgil Goode of the Constitution party could take away votes from Mitt Romney. Jill Stein of the Green party would more likely draw votes away from Barack Obama. Is it possible that these third party candidates could affect the outcome?
Even though each of them will receive a fairly small number of votes, remember that we have a very close election in several important battleground states. If these candidates combine to pick up even 1-2% of the votes in a close battleground state, it could easily affect the election outcome in that state.
In an election year that is this close, we've spent time discussing how just about every voter group (Latinos, females, young people, etc.) can decide an election, it's not a far stretch to believe that another important voting block is the group of third party voters. They too could decide this election.
John Klemanski
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