One of the commonly used predictors of an incumbent President's re-election success is the result of the polling question, "Do you think that things in the nation are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?" Different pollsters have slightly different wording, but all feature the "right direction" and "wrong track" choices.
The bad news for President Obama is that he's been in a 15 - 20% deficit on this question for many months. While the gap has closed somewhat recently, the most recent polls (taken over the past two weeks or so) still show a deficit on this question of about 15%.
Real Clear Politics averages the results from several polls, and for these past two weeks, an average of 39.5% of the respondents from multiple polls say we are headed in the right direction, but 55% say we are headed off on the wrong track.
Now, there are those who would argue that some of the "wrong track" respondents believe that, for example, the Republicans in Congress are to blame for blocking initiatives and otherwise doing nothing in the past year. Further, even if some respondents blame the President for our "wrong track," maybe they believe that because he hasn't been assertive enough with his own policy preferences. Or maybe people just don't like the gridlock that exists in Washington and they blame everyone.
Any one of those explanations may be true for some voters, but I'm guessing people look at the economy, look at unemployment, and look at the collapse of the housing market, and blame the President whether he deserves all of the blame or not. This is a part of being a leader -- you take credit sometimes when it's not deserved and you must accept blame sometimes when it's not deserved.
All told, the "right direction" and "wrong track" question reveals a substantial unhappiness with the current administration, and that's not a good sign for the President's re-election chances.
John Klemanski
The bad news for President Obama is that he's been in a 15 - 20% deficit on this question for many months. While the gap has closed somewhat recently, the most recent polls (taken over the past two weeks or so) still show a deficit on this question of about 15%.
Real Clear Politics averages the results from several polls, and for these past two weeks, an average of 39.5% of the respondents from multiple polls say we are headed in the right direction, but 55% say we are headed off on the wrong track.
Now, there are those who would argue that some of the "wrong track" respondents believe that, for example, the Republicans in Congress are to blame for blocking initiatives and otherwise doing nothing in the past year. Further, even if some respondents blame the President for our "wrong track," maybe they believe that because he hasn't been assertive enough with his own policy preferences. Or maybe people just don't like the gridlock that exists in Washington and they blame everyone.
Any one of those explanations may be true for some voters, but I'm guessing people look at the economy, look at unemployment, and look at the collapse of the housing market, and blame the President whether he deserves all of the blame or not. This is a part of being a leader -- you take credit sometimes when it's not deserved and you must accept blame sometimes when it's not deserved.
All told, the "right direction" and "wrong track" question reveals a substantial unhappiness with the current administration, and that's not a good sign for the President's re-election chances.
John Klemanski
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